Document Type

Article

Publication Date

Fall 1-19-2025

Abstract

Heritage areas are increasingly threatened by rapid urban expansion, driven by population growth and insufficient planning measures. These areas are vital as they preserve cultural identity, social cohesion, and economic vitality, making their preservation essential. This study investigates the drivers of urban expansion in Gharb Sohail, Aswan, a culturally and historically significant heritage area. Employing Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and advanced machine learning models, including the Land Change Modeler (LCM) and Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) neural networks, the research identifies key factors shaping urban growth and simulates future expansion scenarios. The findings indicate that urban sprawl within the study area is projected to cover 753.65 feddan by 2062. Proximity to the Nile River, mosques, and tourism infrastructure emerge as the dominant factors influencing urbanization, with Cramer’s V values of 0.66, 0.50, and 0.49, respectively. The study forecasts that by 2062, the urbanized area will expand from 20.15 % to 27.39 % of the total study area, resulting in considerable encroachment on non-urban lands. This significant growth poses a direct threat to the integrity of Gharb Sohail’s heritage areas, highlighting the urgent need for comprehensive urban management strategies. In response, the research advocates for the implementation of targeted urban planning measures, including strict urban growth regulation, the promotion of architectural continuity, and the integration of sustainable development practices in adjacent urban areas. These strategic recommendations offer actionable insights for urban planners and policymakers, providing a robust framework for balancing heritage conservation with the socioeconomic demands of urban growth.

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