Mostafa labib

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

Fall 9-25-2025

Abstract

The Global Stocktake (GST) at COP30 faces a critical risk of producing an incomplete climate assessment because it excludes emissions generated from wars and destruction as well as displacement within Fragile and Conflict-Affected States (FCAS). The 39 FCAS states which have the smallest responsibility for global warming emit large amounts of conflict-related greenhouse gases that match the annual emissions of small nations although these emissions are missing from Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and GST reports. The missing data in global climate accounting creates an inaccurate picture which unfairly penalizes FCAS for their uncontrollable circumstances while undermining climate justice. Climate change effects remain largely hidden in the already water-stressed MENA region because of methodological flaws along with financial obstacles and geopolitical vetoes that maintain this neglect. The analysis of the case studies reveals severe but unseen climate impacts within a region that already faces water and heat stress. The paper presents the FCAS Climate Emergency Protocol which involves integrating satellite-based conflict emissions tracking into GST alongside Solidarity Mitigation Pacts that high emitters must fund. Accurate global accounting requires the inclusion of conflict emissions because every tonne matters even during war and this ensures fairness and accountability in the system.

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